urban sprawl forecasthow denver's expansion looks like
introduciton
nestled between the rocky mountains and great plains, denver faces a unique urban development challenge. as one of america's fastest-growing metropolitan areas, the city must balance rapid population growth with limited land availability. this research dives into how denver's urban landscape might evolve, using data-driven approaches to forecast future development patterns.
denver's development landscape is a study in contrasts. while the rocky mountains create natural barriers to the west, substantial undeveloped land lies to the east and northeast. this geographic dynamic shapes not just where the city can grow, but how it grows.
the city's investment in transportation infrastructure, including highway systems and light rail expansion, plays a crucial role in shaping development patterns. our analysis reveals that except for the airport area in the northeast, the region benefits from comprehensive transportation coverage.
mapping the changes (2010-2018)
we intergrated raster data with fishnet.
population shifts
- our research uncovered fascinating spatial patterns in denver's population growth:
eastern areas: experienced significant population increases
western regions: maintained relatively stable population levels
key factors: new residential developments, housing affordability, and transportation access
land cover transformation
analyzing land cover changes between 2011-2019 revealed striking patterns:
- developed land: increased by 31.15%
- agricultural land: 25.99% conversion rate
- undeveloped areas: 31.83% transformation rate
- forests and wetlands: showed resilience with lower conversion rates (0.3% and 7.34% respectively)
infrastructure
the city's investment in transportation infrastructure, including highway systems and light rail expansion, plays a crucial role in shaping development patterns. our detailed analysis of highway accessibility reveals distinct patterns:
- eastern region: benefits from flat terrain and extensive transportation coverage, creating optimal conditions for development
- western region: faces accessibility challenges due to rocky mountain constraints, resulting in fewer transportation options and longer distances to major highways
- airport zone: stands as an exception in the northeast corner, with unique transportation patterns
spatial development patterns
our analysis of development patterns revealed interesting spatial relationships:
- downtown core: maintains relative stability in development patterns
- northeastern quadrant: shows significant development influence, particularly around the airport
- border areas: demonstrate strong developmental ripple effects, where new development influences surrounding areas
- infrastructure impact: clear correlation between transportation accessibility and development intensity
predictive modeling: denver in 2027
model development
we developed and tested six different models to predict future development patterns. our most successful model (model 4) incorporated:
- 2010 and 2018 population data
- land cover changes
- spatial development patterns
- transportation infrastructure
key findings
the model achieved impressive accuracy metrics:
- 97% overall accuracy
- roc curve auc: 0.916
- strong predictive power for identifying development-prone areas
future development hotspots
our analysis points to the northeastern quadrant as denver's primary growth frontier, particularly in areas such as:
- central park
- green valley ranch
- vicinity of denver international airport
allocation
allocation
is the final stage of the urban growth modeling process. there are some obvious development opportunities in the northeast corner of denver city, and there are certain development needs according to the model. for the estimated population data, the population change index of this area is not high, and the accessibility is not so high compared to the current highway network.
looking ahead
as denver continues to grow, this research provides a framework for understanding and managing urban sprawl. the findings suggest a need for:
- balanced development strategies
- environmental protection measures
- infrastructure planning alignment
- sustainable growth policies
copyright @liuhaobing, hit the link to github